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Fauci’s 2021 COVID prediction: schools reopen, vaccines



The weather in December is severe, and January is as bleak as the coronavirus continues to ravage California and the United States.

In a conversation that was broadcast online on Wednesday, the US government’s chief infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fuchs, and Governor Gavin Newsom (Gavin Newsom) talked about why it is so difficult to control the pandemic in California and throughout the United States.

But he also offered some hope for the future, outlining his latest estimates as to when it might return to normal and whether the school can be safely reopened.

Here are some of Fauci̵

7;s thoughts on what might emerge in 2021:

Fauci said that as far as children are concerned, the behavior of the coronavirus is very different from the flu.

With the coronavirus, children’s infection levels seem to be lower than in the wider community.

Fauci said: “It’s almost counterintuitive, but that’s the truth.”

“What we should do is to do our best to support the upbringing of school children. … If you really want to restore some form of normality to society, the first thing we must do is to get the children back to school.”

Vaccines for the public will be distributed in late spring and early summer

The initial distribution of vaccines to the highest priority groups, including health care workers and personnel in nursing homes, was slower than initially promised. But Fauci said that there is a feeling that by January there will be greater momentum and the rate of vaccination will accelerate.

However, before the public accepts the vaccine, there are other priority groups following closely behind. The vaccine may be available to everyone at the end of March or early April.

By then, as many people as possible will be vaccinated in spring and summer, with a view to vaccinating everyone next fall when the weather is cool.

By early fall, “normal conditions are very similar”-if enough people are vaccinated

If the United States strives to vaccinate many people between April and July, “I believe…by the early fall, we will have enough immunity to truly return to a similarly strong state. Normality-school, Theaters, sports events, restaurants. I believe that if we do it right, we will be there before the early fall.” Fauci said.

Fauci said no one really knows how many people need to be immunized to stop the spread of the virus. He guessed it would be between 70% and 85%.

Fauci said: “If you have the opportunity to get the vaccine, please get the vaccine.” “It is safe and a highly effective vaccine that can save your life, the life of your family and the community.

“So I believe in these two things-stick to what you have been talking about in California, public health measures, and as we gradually vaccinate more and more people, we will look at that. In the rearview mirror Things.” Fauci told Newsom.

Not containing the coronavirus will be disastrous for the economy

Some people think that the business restrictions imposed to control the pandemic are too costly. But Fauci said the pandemic needs to be controlled in order for the economy to return to normal.

“We need to use public health measures (as tools, gateways and tools) to restore the economy. Not economics and public health. Fauci said: “This is public health, which can restore your economy. ”

Fauci said, “When the infection level drops, the economy will reopen.” “Also, before the vaccine starts, the only way to reduce the infection level is through the public health measures you have been talking about.”

Fauci also reviewed the challenges of 2020. Here are some key points:

The asymptomatic transmission of the virus makes this pandemic difficult to control

Fauci said that the initial information about the coronavirus from China at the end of 2019 was misleading.

The original statement was that the virus could not spread effectively from person to person, and eventually led to errors. Then, the term means that it is mainly spread by people who can see the disease.

The shocking reality is that even people with no obvious symptoms are spreading the virus.

“For me, that is a game changer,” Fauci said. “Because you can’t just test people with symptoms, because you will miss those who are asymptomatic.”

Second, this means that wearing a mask becomes very important. “If you don’t know who is infected with the virus, then everyone should wear a mask. This means that we need to universally and unify the real basic principles of wearing masks,” Fauci said.

The wide range of results from asymptomatic to death makes it very easy to remove the virus

Fauci said he has never seen a virus like this, in which 40% of infected people have no symptoms at all, and 20% to 25% have symptoms so severe that they may require hospitalization or death.

Fauci said: “The mystery of how to let so many asymptomatic people and so many severely affected people is one of the reasons why we have difficulty communicating.” “Because most people who do well are young people, they said, ‘What should I worry about?’ …so they said to themselves: “Why do I need to disturb my life? “”

However, this sentiment has had serious consequences and has become a factor in the worst death toll in any country in the world-more than 335,000 deaths. Public health activities such as wearing masks have been politicized.

In Los Angeles County, the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths exceeds 10,000, which is now three times the cumulative number of deaths from the 3,133 flu in the last flu season.

This is the most political public health crisis in modern American history

The best public health information is consistent and simple. Fauci said, but the coronavirus pandemic has caused political divisions, making it difficult to obtain consistent public health information.

Even worse than efforts to raise awareness about HIV and AIDS, the public health crisis shows that political leaders did not pay enough attention in their early days. Fauci said: “This is completely different from the divergence we are seeing now, which really makes the implementation of public health measures and public health information very difficult.”

The U.S. should do better to control the pandemic

Newsom asked him if he expected the United States to deal with more than 335,000 deaths in the country, and Fauci admitted that he once thought that the United States would now be in a better position.

Even when New York was hit hard in the late winter of 2020 and early spring of 2020, Fauci predicted that the country would drive down coronavirus levels and public health officials would figure out how to control the outbreak.

Fauci said, but the United States has never reached a low benchmark. Fauci said that too many states gave up orders for whole-house services too early, so when the weather turned cooler in autumn, “we just walked out of the roof.”

“What surprised me and disappointed me is that I think that if we reduce to a very low baseline, because of these individual small problems, we can identify, isolate and track contacts, and they are in good condition.” Fauci Say.

He said: “The only trouble is that when you have 100,000 community cases every day, it is almost impossible to effectively identify, isolate and track contacts.” “As a result, we have suffered a heavy blow. Unfortunately, currently, California The blow was as severe as anyone else, or worse.”

We should do more testing

Looking forward, Fauci said that we should study flood schools and gather living environments together through tests, especially using the so-called antigen test, which is easier to handle and can be widely used in schools and other environments.

Fauci said: “If we only use this test very, very frequently-in intermittent teachers’ schools and eventually in students’ schools-you can have a good understanding of the external state of the infection, and you can Make a difference,”.

“We should pay more attention to community-type surveillance tests, so that you have a sense of where you are, such as in schools, prisons, nursing homes. This is the way to go,” Fauci said. Because the virus is usually spread by people who have no signs of illness, “only by testing people with symptoms, they won’t be infected.”

He said that universities that have conducted such routine tests have found that this method has successfully maintained a low level of virus transmission. That’s because this method can identify people who are positive for the virus early and isolate them until they recover, rather than spreading the virus so widely that officials are forced to close the campus.




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