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Despite protests and reopening, the Bay Area COVID-19 data is still stable



When the state and other parts of the state saw signs of a sharp increase in the spread of coronavirus, the key indicators for the San Francisco Bay Area remained encouraging.

Despite the increase in the number of cases, in most Bay Area counties, the number of hospitalizations and the percentage of positive tests (a pair of indicators that UCSF epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford believes is the best way to measure transmission) is declining Or stable.

Rutherford told SFGATE earlier this month: “The easiest thing to see is the number of cases, which is not a perfect indicator, because you must consider increasing the amount of testing.” “We have now found more asymptomatic cases, Therefore, it is not completely comparable to March and April. Most cases found in March and April are symptomatic. Now in May and June, we have found more asymptomatic cases, so it is difficult Explain, because more infections are rediscovered.”

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related: Cheat Sheet: How to decrypt COVID-19 data in your county

Marin County is a lonely Bay Area county. Both the hospitalization rate and the positive test rate have increased in the past two weeks. Even if the new 7-day average is 6.6%, the county is still below 8.0%. Base state officials have set the target The rule of the county.

Although the test positive rate in some Bay Area counties has increased slightly, compared with the rest of the country, the growth rate is very small. Specifically, in Florida, the positive rate of the test rose from 2.0% to 16.1% in just a few weeks, while in Arizona, the number has jumped from a low single digit to 19% in the same period.

This is a county-to-county hospitalization rate and positive rate figures. All data comes from the website of each county and the inter-county hospitalization database of the state.

San Francisco (3,249 confirmed cases)

7-day average of hospitalization on June 8: 39 patients

7-day average of hospitalization on June 22: 35.6 patients

The 7-day average of the positive test rate on June 8: 1.6%

7-day average positive test rate on June 21*: 2.0%

*The test data of San Francisco is only as of June 21

San Mateo (2,961 confirmed cases)

7-day average of hospitalization on June 8: 55.1 patients

7-day average of hospitalization on June 22: 23.3 Patients

The 7-day average of the positive test rate on June 8: 3.5%

The percentage of 7-day average positive test rate on June 22: 4.4%

Alameda (5,140 confirmed cases)

7-day average of hospitalization on June 8: 87.4 patients

7-day average of hospitalization on June 22: 81.9 patients

The 7-day average of the positive test rate on June 8: 3.9%

The percentage of 7-day average positive test rate on June 22: 3.5%

Contra Costa (2,454 confirmed cases)

7-day average of hospitalization on June 8: 17 patients

7-day average of hospitalization on June 22: 29 patients

The 7-day average of the positive test rate on June 8: 4.7%

The percentage of 7-day average positive test rate on June 22: 3.2%

Santa Clara (3,727 confirmed cases)

7-day average of hospitalization on June 8: 65.6 patients

7-day average of hospitalization on June 22: 56 patients

The 7-day average of the positive test rate on June 8: 1.5%

The percentage of 7-day average positive test rate on June 22: 2.0%

Marin (984 confirmed cases)

7-day average of hospitalization on June 8: 1.7 cases

7-day average of hospitalization on June 22: 6.1 Patient

The 7-day average of the positive test rate on June 8: 4.1%

7-day average positive test rate on June 19*: 6.6%

*The test data of Marin County is only as of June 19.

Solano (1,020 confirmed cases)

7-day average of hospitalization on June 8: 11.9 patients

7-day average of hospitalization on June 22: 15.3 Patient

Note: Solano will not report the percentage of daily positive tests, only the cumulative test data.

Napa (245 confirmed cases)

7-day average of hospitalization on June 8: 0.6 cases

7-day average of hospitalization on June 22: 3.7 patients

Note: Napa does not report daily positive test rates, only cumulative test data.

Sonoma (956 confirmed cases)

7-day average of hospitalization on June 8: 13.6 Patients

7-day average of hospitalization on June 22: 10.8 Patients

Note: Sonoma does not report daily positive detection rates.

Rutherford told SFGATE in mid-June that it usually takes 7 to 10 days to assess the impact of the event, such as the total number of cases or the percentage of positive rates in the protest or restart phase. Since the Bay Area County reopened retail stores, outdoor catering and other departments in early June (the same time the protests started), if these events will have a significant impact on the local area, then we should now expect a significant change in the positive rate to spread .

In addition, most patients who eventually need to be hospitalized for COVID-19 reach this stage 7-10 days after the symptoms appear, so the hospitalization rate is slightly lower than other indicators.

However, Rutherford cited data from the city of Minneapolis saying that there is no guarantee that protests or other outdoor activities will lead to increased virus transmission.

He said: “Minnesota has steadily declined; there was a slight increase on June 1, but this may be due to a lag in weekend reports.” On May 25, in Minneapolis, George Floyd (George Floyd) began ) Two weeks after the death protest. Everything is showing a downward trend. If you look back 7 to 10 days, now you will be expected to see a huge leap forward. “

Because the protesters did not maintain a distance of six feet, but many people were wearing masks, Rutherford believed there was a clear advantage here.

“Mask work,” he said. “Masks are the most important. I want to say that masks can prevent social distance more than actual protective measures. And, in an open-air environment without four walls, roofs and floors sandwiching viruses, it also helps… this is this It’s not a great science, and no one will win the Nobel Prize for it. However, if your activity increases significantly, and then 7 to 10 days after the end of the activity, the process of spreading is not much, then it is not counted what.”


Eric Ting is a SFGATE digital reporter. Email: eric.ting@sfgate.com | Twitter:@_ericting

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