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COVID roller coaster climbs again

Tthis is A lot of news about COVID-1

9. The third wave is building momentum, President-elect Biden promised a more aggressive federal approach to the virus, Biden’s advisers have agreed to a national lockdown, and the vaccine looks on the horizon.

To twist the words of a great American poet, there is a light at the end of the tunnel with A freight train is heading in our direction.

Let’s start with vaccine news, because vaccines will eventually set a timetable here. Pfizer and BioNTech announced that their vaccine appears to be “more than 90% effective”-“no serious safety risks” have not been observed. Later this month, they should get more security data, and if everything is normal, they will seek emergency use authorization from the US government. Rival vaccine developer Moderna also plans to achieve some results by the end of this month. From a good point of view, Eli Lilly has just obtained the authorization of a new antibody therapy, although the drug is in short supply and cannot be used for patients who have already been hospitalized.

That’s really good news. But this does not free us from the current predicament. Once the vaccine is approved, millions of doses will need to be dispensed, which will take time and bring logistical challenges. For example, the Pfizer vaccine needs to be kept at such a low temperature (minus 94 degrees) that it is packed in a special container with dry ice. Even if it is supplemented with ice, it must be sent out within 15 days. (It can be stored in special refrigerators for longer periods of time, but medical institutions usually do not have these.) It also needs to be taken twice a month at intervals of 1,000 or more per shipment. Especially rural areas will encounter trouble, and the states are working hard to determine the distribution details.

So what is the realistic timetable? The Minister of Health and Human Services Alex Azar proposed a three-stage process: the most vulnerable people, including those in nursing homes, can get the vaccine before the end of the year; front-line workers may be before the end of January Get it; the public can get it sometime in spring.

Vaccinating the most vulnerable groups will be a huge step, because COVID-19 is far more harmful to the elderly and patients than to anyone else. Once they are safe, it is difficult to prove extreme, economically harmful restrictions on the entire population. But even assuming everything goes according to plan, this situation will not last for about six weeks.Third wave just now.

This is the latest set of charts in the COVID tracking project. The seven-day average daily death toll again exceeded 1,000. The temporary trend is clearly rising.

At the federal level, this will be Trump’s problem until he leaves office on January 20. He may not launch any major efforts on lockouts or other restrictions. As I have pointed out in the past, we have a federal system, no matter who is in charge, the federal role here is limited. If the situation becomes bad enough and the parties are extremely motivated to compromise, then at best, economic relief is coming, but for now, these negotiations have reached a deadlock.

It is up to state and local governments to decide what measures (if any) to take to prevent proliferation.

According to data from the Department of Health and Human Services, some states have nearly 90% of intensive care units. It is a matter of serious concern that in many places, including northwest Wisconsin, hospitals are beyond capacity. Flint, Michigan; northern Idaho; Oregon and Utah. Just as the vaccine seems to be coming, suffering a catastrophic wave of COVID will certainly be a shame for the failure of the whole nation.

However, the measures we are taking now obviously cannot control the virus. Understandably, the public has lost interest in the blockade. As early as the spring, two-thirds of Americans told Gallup that they were likely to be in place within a month if public health officials advised. (In fact, many people stopped going out before the official ban.) Now that number is less than half, even though another one-fifth said they are “very likely to comply.” The blockade depends largely on voluntary compliance, and the longer the delay, the more difficult it is to achieve such compliance. It would be a political and economic disaster to shut down unplanned businesses to rescue.

Nevertheless, many places are introducing new restrictions, and I suspect that if the trend does not turn around soon, it will be completely locked in. I don’t know how effectively they will change their behavior, especially during Thanksgiving and Christmas.

We have established some Since March, our immunity has improved, we have done better in treating COVID cases, and temperature itself does not seem to be an important factor in the spread of the virus, so this wave may prove to be relatively mild.On the other hand, a cold will definitely drive people into the room indeed It is easier to spread. This is the time of the year when people gather with large families. This is a high-risk activity that cannot be afforded by business closures. I think we will know that it will get bad soon.

What are we going to buy next year? If the most vulnerable people are already vaccinated, we might be in a good position. Either way, we will appoint a new president in mid-to-late January, who promised to adopt a different federal approach.

Biden may try to impose major restrictions at the federal level. This is worrying and understandable because people in the Biden world have been talking about things such as national mask regulations and even the country’s four to six week lockdown. But Biden himself is scornful of the order mask, sometimes admitting that the president does not have such authorization, and the best he can do is to encourage states to implement such measures. His current plan does not include this plan, and the president’s confinement is even more doubtful in the Constitution. These comments are mostly vague.

Biden’s actual COVID plan is less offensive. He hopes to strengthen the provision of testing and treatment, and cooperate with Congress to provide more relief. These things can help us transition into a world with vaccines, especially if things don’t go as far as Azar hopes.

In any case, there is an end here. We just need to spend the winter first.

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