These figures cast a shadow over a country that has already witnessed more than 42,000 deaths from covid-19.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Jean Castex announced that comprehensive lockdown restrictions will continue until at least December 1, and restaurants, bars and stadiums are likely to be closed until December. He thought there might be a “family celebration” at Christmas, but he warned people not to look forward to gatherings or larger gatherings.
Castex said that a quarter of deaths in France are currently caused by the coronavirus.
He said the government has tracked more than 1
In April, the recorded daily death toll took only one week, rising from 401 on April 3 to 1,101 on April 10.
Although health experts have predicted that the virus will return to the northern hemisphere this fall, the mortality rate seems likely to remain relatively low for some time. The health system has time to prepare. People have learned more about how to protect the most vulnerable. People have adjusted their behavior so that those who are sick do not receive a high “viral load.” Improved treatment strategies (including antiviral drugs and steroids) are helping people recover.
The idea that deaths may not increase with the increase in cases now appears to be wishful thinking.
The situation in France is the same as in most parts of Europe. In hospitals and nursing homes, cases are increasing exponentially, the health system is approaching capacity, and more people are dying.
Philippe Fabbri, a general doctor in Paris, said: “I have never seen a COVID-19 case in three months. He said, but the situation has changed after the summer. “Now I see 12 every week. Or 15, or. Fabbri said that in light of the increase in the number of cases, it is not surprising that the death rate will also rise. “It is logical.
The death rate per capita in France is not the highest on the continent. Central European countries are seeing more coronavirus deaths in their populations. But these countries largely missed the first wave of outbreaks in Europe. For France, the country with the best health system in the world has experienced all of this before this year, and the rise in the death toll is particularly painful.
The hospital is approaching a tipping point.
Castex said on Thursday: “We see a hospitalization every 30 seconds and an ICU admission every 30 minutes.”
The government opened more intensive care beds by postponing non-emergency procedures. Castex said that 95% of the 7,700 ICU beds nationwide are still occupied, and pointed out that surge capacity may need to be increased soon. Some covid-19 patients must be transferred to adjacent areas where there is more space in the intensive care unit. Health Minister Olivier Véran said on Thursday that 120 medical evacuations had been carried out this fall.
Experts say that for patients who are ultimately hospitalized, case management has been improved between the first wave and the second wave.
Thomas Gilles, a pulmonologist at the Bobigny Aviken Hospital in the suburbs of Paris, told Le Monde: “The regulation of oxygen therapy is much better, and the speed of intubation is much faster than before. .”
Approximately 60% of critically ill patients were placed on a ventilator, while the remaining 40% received oxygenation therapy. He said the end result was a reduction of the length of stay in the intensive care unit by about five days.
But, of course, there is still no reliable treatment.
Although the vast majority of recent deaths are still elderly patients, Castex pointed out that during the second wave, 40% of the patients admitted to the ICU ward were under 65.
Epidemiologists say that young patients may not need to seek medical help, but their health will deteriorate rapidly.
Marc Gastelou-Echegori, an epidemiologist in Paris and deputy director of the MSF Center, said: “If you are 75 years old or have diabetes, the message may be clear: you know you are at risk. In.”. “However, if you are still young, there will be too much information circulating around you, so that the young people are less moved. In general, this is correct, but your understanding is not so good. The tendency to treat is also low.”
Gastellu-Etchegorry said that using this deadly virus, the best way to reduce mortality is to limit transmission, which means following public health guidelines. Google’s mobile data shows that most people in France follow the lockdown rules. However, the police have imposed more than 72,279 fines on violators.
“The measures currently taken-should be followed. They are effective.” Gastellu-Etchegorry said.
These measures are more limited than the strict national lockdown in the spring. Activities outside the home are still limited to the daily use of “certificate” forms, but the school is still open and there is more business than before.
Even if the current measures are sufficient, there is still a lag before that, which means that the number of deaths will decrease. In the spring, the confinement began on March 16. It wasn’t until April 11 (nearly four weeks after which more than 9,000 people died) that the death toll began to decline.