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Home / US / CNN vote: Biden continues to maintain national advantage in the final days of the 2020 game

CNN vote: Biden continues to maintain national advantage in the final days of the 2020 game



Among possible voters, 54% support Biden, while 42% support Trump. Since 2019, Biden has maintained a leading position in every CNN poll of the duel. Since the spring, he has had a statistically significant advantage in every high-quality national poll.

There is no indication from the polls that since Trump won by a narrow margin in the 2016 general election, Trump’s four-year re-election campaign has successfully won him important new supporters.

Unless there is a major change in the landscape in the final days of the game, Trump’s chances of closing the gap depend largely on the turnout on election day. The poll found that in countries that have already voted (64% for Biden and 34% for Trump) or countries that plan to vote in advance but have not yet voted at the time of the interview (63% for Biden and 33% for Trump), Biden has almost two-thirds of the voting rights. However, among those who said they planned to vote on election day, Trump accounted for 59% to 36%.

The demographic divide that has defined national politics in the past four years still exists. Women split sharply for Biden, accounting for 61

% to 37%. Among men, this is almost evenly divided, with Trump accounting for 48% and Biden 47%. Colored voters support the Democratic Party with an advantage of nearly 50 points, accounting for 71% to 24%, while white voters allocate 50% of Trump to 48% of Biden.

Nearly even numbers among male and white voters conceal huge differences in education and gender among whites. Women of color (77% of Biden, 21% of Trump) and white women (54% of Biden, 45% of Trump) broke with Biden, men of color (64% of Biden accounted for 28 % Trump) is the same. However, the whites’ approval rate for Trump is 56% to 41%.

Those with a college degree increased Biden’s score by 30 points, while those without a college degree divided it evenly. Among white voters, the difference is even greater. White voters with college degrees favor Biden between 58% and 40%. Those white voters who did not earn a four-year degree are a mirror image of Trump’s 58% breaking Biden’s 40%. Among white voters with degrees, the gender gap is relatively small, but among white women without a degree (Biden 49%, Trump 49%) and white women without a degree (Biden 68%, especially Lampe accounts for 30%), the gap is as high as 38 points. .

In this poll, Biden stood firmly in Biden’s corner, and the elderly turned to the direction of the Democratic Party in the 2018 general election. Overall, 55% of voters over the age of 65 support the Democratic Party, with Trump accounting for 44%. Biden is also far ahead of voters under 35 (Biden 68% and Trump 30%), while voters between 35 and 64 are equally divided between the two candidates (each candidate There is 48% support).

The president’s approval rate in the polls is 42% of all adults, and the opposition rate is 55%. Among possible voters, a similar approval rate was 42% and an objection rate was 56%. This number has hardly changed in the last year. In one of the 12 public opinion polls conducted by CNN since October 2019, the number of approvals was between 40% and 45% of all years. In the opinion poll conducted in 2017, 44% were in favor and 53% opposed.

Four in ten Americans say that the country is currently in good condition (39%). Since 1980, this number has only fallen twice in the re-election year: in 1992 (35% of those who went well) and 1980 (32% of those who went well).

All the data show that this election is a referendum on the unpopular president, and a considerable part of the supporters of the two candidates are making decisions based on their feelings about Trump. Among Biden’s supporters, 48% said they voted more for Trump than for Biden, while 48% said they voted for Biden, not for the president. Although that is still a general vote against Trump, it is a shift in favor of Biden compared to the polls at the beginning of the cycle. On the other hand, nearly eight in ten Trump supporters (79%) said that their votes were for the president, not against Biden (17%).

However, the Trump campaign has been negative towards Biden in the final weeks of the campaign. The poll showed that its views on the former vice president have not changed much. In public opinion polls, the favorability of Democratic nominees is still largely positive: 55% of voters are favored, while 42% of voters are the same as in early October. Trump’s numbers are as negative as earlier this month: 57% have a negative view of him, while 41% are in favor.

According to exit polls, in 2016, voters who held negative views of Trump and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton strongly opposed Trump. However, compared with this year’s candidates, the size of voters is smaller, from 18% when CNN withdrew from the polls in 2016 to 4% now. Most people are in favor of Biden but opposed to Trump (51%), while only 37% are in favor of Trump but opposed to Biden.

Biden maintains an advantage over Trump because candidates are more likely to unite the country (Biden 60%, Trump 34%), honest and trustworthy (54% to 37%), and he cares about people like you (54 % To 40%)), who will protect Americans from harm (52% to 45%). However, possible voters are very divided. Which candidate has the perseverance and acumen to serve as president (Trump accounted for 47% and Biden 46%). This is Trump’s concern. He defeated him during the Biden era during the campaign.

Compared with the candidate’s leadership and personal qualities, voters are more likely to consider the candidate’s position on issues that are important to their vote. But the subset focused on personal qualities is very different from Biden (71% support Biden, 27% Trump), and those who think the problem is more critical favor Trump (54% Trump To 43% of Biden).

However, in general, Biden is often regarded as a candidate for a clear plan to solve the country’s problems, with Biden accounting for 54% and Trump accounting for 41%. The former vice president has an advantage over Trump because he trusts to deal with racial inequality (Biden 60% to Trump 36%), the coronavirus outbreak (57% to 39%), and healthcare (57% to 41%). %), crime and security (52% to 46%) and Supreme Court nomination (51% to 44%). Despite this, Trump has regained his advantage in controlling the economy (Trump 51%, Biden 46%).

More broadly, the majority of possible voters believe that Biden’s policy recommendations are likely to develop the country in the right direction (53%), while the majority believe that Trump’s recommendations point in the wrong direction (53%).

All this is done in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. Eight months after most parts of the United States were closed to slow the spread of the virus, 50% of Americans said that the most serious outbreak of the disease has not yet arrived. Only half of the people said they would go back to their regular lives. In addition, 40% said that the economy is still in a downturn due to the virus, while only 29% said that the economy has begun to recover.

In all of these measures where the country is in its fight against the coronavirus, voters in Biden and Trump have completely opposite views. Among Biden’s supporters, 77% believe that the most serious moment of the pandemic has arrived, while 78% of Trump voters believe it has become behind us. Eight in ten Trump supporters (84%) said they are returning to their regular lives today, while 76% of Biden voters are not. 64% of Biden’s supporters said the economy is still deteriorating, while 62% of Trump voters believe the economy is rising.

The CNN voting was conducted by SSRS from October 23 to 26. A sample survey of 1,005 adults randomly selected on a fixed phone or mobile phone by field interviewers (including 886 possible voters) was conducted nationwide. The margin of sampling error for the results of the entire sample is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points; for possible voters, the result is plus or minus 3.6 points.


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