Opinion polls conducted at the end of the campaign show that compared with previous CNN polls in various states, the presidential campaign has hardly moved.
The survey shows that Biden has gained a broad advantage among voters who have voted in person by mail or early in person, while Trump is ahead of voters who have not yet voted. The size of subsequent voters may determine the outcome of the game.
In Arizona and Wisconsin, the poll results roughly match the average of the recent high-quality public opinion polls conducted by the competition. An Arizona survey showed that in a competition within the sampling error range, Biden won 50% of the support, while Trump̵
The results of North Carolina show that Biden leads Trump with a marginal advantage of 51% to 45%, second only to the 4-point sampling error range of the polls. The average opinion poll in North Carolina shows that compared with the new opinion poll, the presidential campaign is more competitive, although this week’s NBC News/Marist College poll also found that Biden’s advantage is small.
In Michigan, the results showed that the region’s profit margins were higher than most public opinion polls there, with Biden’s 53% and Trump’s 41%, but each candidate’s results The candidate’s average estimated support is within the survey error range.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, white voters account for a larger proportion of the population than in Arizona or North Carolina, and they are more inclined to support the worship of Michigan and Wisconsin than white voters in Arizona or North Carolina. Board. White voters with college degrees in the two northern states supported Biden with a particularly large margin, with 61% supporting the former vice presidents of Michigan and Wisconsin, while Arizona (50%) and North Carolina (51%) ) The support rate is about half. Most white voters without a college degree support Trump. Among them, North Carolina has the highest approval rate. 64% of North Carolina voters support the president.
In these four states, the gender gap is large. In each state, 55% or more of women support Biden, while in North Carolina and Arizona, men break Trump’s support. In Michigan And Wisconsin are divided equally between the two states.
On the two decisive issues of the 2020 campaign-the economy and the coronavirus pandemic-voters disagree about which candidate can handle each issue better. Biden has a greater advantage in dealing with the coronavirus outbreak in all four states and is more trusted, while Arizona has only 7 points in this area, which is his narrowest advantage. Voters in Arizona and North Carolina prefer to see the economy in Trump’s hands (54% Trump in Arizona to 43% Biden in Arizona, 51% Trump to 46% in North Carolina) Biden), and the two candidates are even discussing this issue in Michigan (49% of Trump to 48% of Biden) and Wisconsin (49% of Biden to 48% of Trump), Although Biden’s overall preference range there is larger.
However, in all four states, most likely voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency, ranging from 51% in Arizona to 56% in Michigan.
Trump supporters in all four states are voting to show their support for the president. In each poll, more than seven in ten Trump voters said they voted more for Trump than for Biden (79% in Wisconsin, 77% in Arizona and Michigan, and North Carolina. State is 71%). However, among Biden’s supporters, the differences are even greater. The majority of people in Wisconsin said that they voted for the former vice president (52%) instead of against Trump (43%), but in Arizona, Michigan (48% in Arizona, Tron Popular 45%, Biden 45%) Biden 47%, anti-Trump 43%) and North Carolina (Biden 45%, anti-Trump 43%).
In all four states, Biden has the advantage of being more understanding candidates and easier to unify the country. Voters in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin say that Biden is more important than Trump’s clear plan to solve the country’s problems. In Arizona, voters are divided into two candidates on this measure. Voters in three states-Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin-are evenly divided on who can protect Americans from harm. Trump has advantages in Arizona and Wisconsin because of his stamina and sharp personality to become president, while voters in North Carolina and Michigan are very divided on this issue.
Three of these states also have high-profile Senate contests. In Arizona and Michigan, opinion polls show the advantage of the Democratic Party. In Arizona, 52% of people support Democratic challenger Mark Kelly, and another 45% support Republican Senator Martha McSally. In Michigan, 52% support current Democratic Senator Gary Peters (Gary Peters), while 40% support Republican challenger John James (John James). But in North Carolina, this is almost a race, 47% behind Democrat Carl Cunningham and 44% who supports Republican Senator Tom Tillis.
North Carolina will also elect a governor this year. In that game, Democratic Governor Roy Cooper (Roy Cooper) was clearly ahead of Republican challenger Dan Forest with a ratio of 52% to 42%. .
From October 23 to 30, CNN polls in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin were conducted by telephone among approximately 1,000 adults in each state. These include 865 voters in Arizona, 907 voters in Michigan, 901 voters in North Carolina, and 873 voters in Wisconsin. Among possible voters, the error in the sampling results is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points in Arizona, 3.8 percentage points in Michigan, 4.0 percentage points in North Carolina, and 3.9 percentage points in Wisconsin. Higher in the subgroup.