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Home / Business / China is winning the trade war and its exports have never been higher than now

China is winning the trade war and its exports have never been higher than now



According to official customs data released on Thursday, the world’s second-largest economy will close by 2020, and the overall trade surplus in December was $78 billion. China’s total surplus for the year reached a record 535 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 27% over 2019. At the same time, exports increased to the highest level in history.

Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Capital, wrote in an article: “In the uproar of decoupling and globalization, this epidemic has exacerbated the relationship between China and the rest of the world. Connections between them.” research report.

Louis Kuijs, head of Asian economics at the Oxford Economics Institute, attributes China’s gains to the country’s management of the pandemic, which broke out in Wuhan, China a year ago. He added that as people around the world work from home, China benefits from a large demand for protective equipment and electronic products.

Kuys said: “After recovering from its own Covid-19 crisis, when the pandemic triggered a huge demand for Covid-19-related goods in the United States (and other countries), China opened business.”

At the same time, the trade relationship between China and the United States has become more unbalanced: the trade surplus between Beijing and Washington will increase to 317 billion US dollars by 2020, an increase of 7% over the previous year, the second highest amount ever recorded. ING represents Greater China Area. This amount is only $7 billion below the level in 2018, when Trump launched a fierce trade war to correct what he called the imbalanced relationship with the world’s second largest economy.

“Using the 2020 U.S. import surge from China as a judgement, it can be said that Trump’s trade war with China ended in failure,” Kuis Said.

The gratifying trade news comes a few days before China is expected to announce its GDP data at the end of 2020-another possible positive performance. Analysts generally predict that China’s economic growth will pick up in the last three months of this year.Analysts surveyed by Reuters expected the Chinese In 2020, the GDP will grow by 2.1%.

“Such as [China] It plays a vital role in many supply chains, and fundamentally, it is still a very competitive production location, and it is much easier to “decouple” from it than it is said,” Kuijs said.

However, China’s future is not without challenges. Analysts pointed out that Biden may not reverse some of the pressure on the country after he takes office next week.

Quays said: “The Biden administration will take a different, less combative, and more stable approach to China.” “But politically, it is impossible for Biden to remove tariffs on Chinese goods in the short term. “


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