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Home / World / Britain concludes that the success of the Covid-19 vaccine will not eliminate the virus risk

Britain concludes that the success of the Covid-19 vaccine will not eliminate the virus risk



London-By the middle of this year, all adults in the UK will receive the Covid-19 vaccine, which will be the fastest vaccination rate among major Western countries. But disease modelers who advise the British government recently made a striking prediction: By next summer, even if Covid-19 is withdrawn from the lockdown and the vaccine is effective, the number of deaths from Covid-19 will increase by 56,000.

Research points to the disturbing prospect that with effective vaccines, the virus will continue to cause damage to society, and some restrictions may have to be reintroduced regularly to control the spread of coronavirus.

Conclusion: Businesses and governments all over the world need to be prepared to live with Covid-19. They accept that this virus will not disappear, but again, once the hospitalization rate is reduced to a manageable level, the lockdown will not last forever Go down.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (Boris Johnson) described the “slow and conditional path of lifting the ban”

; in Parliament on Monday, saying: “We cannot avoid that lifting the lockdown will lead to more cases, more hospitalizations and sad deaths. Fact.” “Therefore, there is no reliable path to a zero Covid UK or indeed a zero Covid world.”

Future burden

Scientists suggest that the British government conduct disease modeling, showing that once public health measures are relaxed, even if widespread vaccination, Covid-19 may still cause illness and death.

Cumulative number of deaths (February 12, 2021 to June 30, 2022)

Accumulated hospitalization (February 12, 2021-2022 June 30)

*By April 21st, all adults over 50 years old, medical staff and other priority groups will have at least one dose of the vaccine

†By May 21, all over 70 clinically vulnerable people will receive two doses

Cumulative number of deaths (February 12, 2021 to June 30, 2022)

Accumulated hospitalization (February 12, 2021-2022 June 30)

*By April 21, all adults over 50, medical staff and other priority groups will have at least one dose of the vaccine

†By May 21, all over 70 clinically vulnerable people will receive two doses

Cumulative number of deaths (February 12, 2021 to June 30, 2022)

Accumulated hospitalization (February 12, 2021-2022 June 30)

*By April 21st, all adults over 50 years old, medical staff and other priority groups will have at least one dose of the vaccine

†By May 21, all over 70 clinically vulnerable people will receive two doses

Cumulative deaths

(February 12, 2021 to June 30, 2022)

Accumulative hospitalization

(February 12, 2021 to June 30, 2022)

*By April 21st, all adults over 50 years old, medical staff and other priority groups will have at least one dose of the vaccine

†As of May 21, all more than 70 clinically vulnerable people have received two doses

The precautions will not undermine the value of successfully launching a vaccine. New data released on Monday showed that the UK’s vaccination program has provided at least one shot for more than one-third of the country’s 53 million adults, greatly reducing infection rates and further reducing serious diseases.

However, although the plan paved the way for the gradual unlocking of the country in the next four months, the government did not see it as a panacea. Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, said on Monday: “Vaccinations can reduce vaccination rates, but they will not eliminate it.” He added that Covid-19 “may become a problem in the next few winters. one question.”

Epidemiologists have long warned that Covid-19 may spread for years or even decades, which makes society as well as other endemic diseases such as flu, measles and HIV.

No vaccine is 100% effective, and no population will be fully vaccinated. David Salisbury, who previously chaired the World Health Organization’s Advisory Panel on Immunization Strategies, said that therefore in a society of vaccination, one unknown is the level of infection that the government is willing to bear before introducing restrictions.

Last month, a Covid-19 patient was treated at King’s College Hospital in London.


photo:

Kirsty Wigglesworth/AFP/Getty Images

He said: “This is an acceptable political and social issue.”

The British government hopes that, in the long run, Covid-19 will be considered flu. Over the past five years, between 4,000 and 22,000 people in England have died of influenza each year.In the past year, Covid-19 has killed 130,000 people in the UK

In the United States, Covid-19 has claimed more than 500,000 lives. Depending on the severity of the epidemic, it is estimated that influenza has caused 22,000 to 61,000 deaths in the United States in the past five seasons.

It is expected that by the end of July, all adult populations in England will receive Covid-19 shots. The English government is currently planning to gradually relax almost all restrictions in four stages before June 21. But even if the vaccine is well vaccinated, the virus will still exist. Children will not be immunized, allowing the virus to spread freely in about one-fifth of the population. Not everyone will receive the vaccine.

To make matters worse, the infection rate started from a very high base in the UK

With the highly transmissible variants of Covid-19 sweeping the world, scientists are racing to understand why these new versions of the virus spread faster, and what this might mean for vaccine work. New research shows that the key may be the spike protein, which gives the coronavirus a distinct shape. Illustration: Nick Collingwood / WSJ

The modeler warned that this could lead to jumps if the restrictions were relaxed. The Imperial College London model shows that after using an 85% effective vaccine and vaccinating three-quarters of adult British people, about half of the population will be susceptible to the virus because it will not be given to children vaccination.

Relaxing restrictions in summer will lead to an increase in infections in autumn. The Imperial College estimates that even if the restrictions are not fully relaxed until August, 56,000 deaths may result in June next year. The University of Warwick model also provides a reference for the policy of the British government and reached a similar conclusion.

Marc Baguelin, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, said that the model is a basic case and may underestimate vaccine intake and its effectiveness in controlling the spread of the disease. Other reasons for optimism include improving the treatment of severe Covid-19 hospitalized patients, especially reducing the risk of death for younger patients.

On the other hand, the virus may mutate, greatly reducing the effectiveness of the vaccine. For example, certain vaccines are less effective against variants found in South Africa and Brazil. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment at the University of Washington, said: “This makes the prospects for the third wave even greater.”

The long-term effects of Covid-19 infection on young people are unclear. If they are destructive, the government may be more vigilant to allow young people to return to life without vaccinations or social distancing.

Simple math reflects part of the problem. David Sarphie, CEO of Bio Nano Consulting, said that if 90% of the population uses 90% effective vaccines, then 19% of the vaccines will not be protected. He said: “19% of the British population is 12.9 million,”

This month at the Covid-19 vaccination center in London.


photo:

Andy Rain / Shutterstock

Martin Hibbard, Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said that the continuous hospitalization and death boom in Western countries last year showed that even if a relatively small number of people are exposed, the disease can cause serious illness.

He said: “Even with the vaccine, there are still quite a few people who are still vulnerable.”

Disease experts say that even among people with a wide range of vaccinations, the likelihood of serious illness and death is high, which highlights the need for an effective system to detect the virus and isolate infected people and their contacts. They said the government needs to work hard to increase vaccine coverage and overcome misinformation and hesitation.

In the UK, advisers to the British government said that it may be necessary to put on masks again in winter or work from home to contain the outbreak. The government is reviewing whether Britons must prove that they have been vaccinated or virus-free in order to resume activities such as bars or offices.

After the government budget is released next week, the UK Treasury Department may expand its emergency financial support to the economy, which highlights the potential rocky road to normalcy.

Overall, the coronavirus “will become an essential thing in our lives,” said Roy Anderson, an epidemiologist and professor at Imperial University.

Write to Max Colchester (Max Colchester) at max.colchester@wsj.com, Jason Douglas (Jason Douglas) at jason.douglas@wsj.com

Correction and amplification
The model shows that after using an 85% effective vaccine and vaccinating three-quarters of adult British people, about half of the British population will be more susceptible to the virus. An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that half of the adult population would be vulnerable. (Corrected on February 23)

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