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Biden takes a narrow lead in Florida



NBC News/Marist’s final state poll on Tuesday showed that Joe Biden is slightly ahead of President Donald Trump by 4 points on the Florida battlefield, thanks to his seniority And status among independents.

Biden has the support of 51% of possible voters, while Trump has the support of 47% of voters. In total, only 2% of Florida voters have yet to decide or are voting for another candidate.

Importantly, Biden’s lead is within the margin of error in the polls, plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

In the September NBC News/Marist survey (conducted after the political convention), the proportion of candidates was 48%.

In recent polls, Biden ranked among black voters (84% to 1

4%), whites with college degrees (58% to 40%), women (57% to 41%), and independents (55% to 41%). ) And the elderly (53% to 46%).

In September, Biden and Trump were basically tied among seniors, while Biden led by 11 points among independents.

At the same time, Trump’s advantages include Florida Hispanics (52% to 46%), white voters (52% to 45%), men (54% to 44%) and whites without a college degree (62% to 36%) .

Trump held a similar lead among Latinos in a September NBC News/Marist poll for the state.

“Currently, Biden has the highest score among voters over 65 and independents (groups conducted by Trump in 2016),” said Lee Millingoff, who conducted the “Marist” survey.

He said: “However, Trump is still keeping pace with Biden among Latino voters. This is the group that Trump failed miserably last time.”

47% of Florida voters approve of Trump’s work

Opinion polls show that 47% of possible voters in the state approve of Trump’s job performance (in line with his vote ratio), and 50% of them oppose it.

In September, the approval rate was 47% and the disapproval rate was 48%.

Trump’s favorable/unfavorable scores in the new polls were 45% and 52%. (September was 47%, minus 50%.)

Biden’s favorable/unfavorable scores were 48% and 49%, respectively. (It was 46% last month and 49%.)

As for Republican Governor Ron DeSantis (Ron DeSantis), 47% of voters approve of his performance, while 46% of voters disapprove.

The NBC News/Marist poll also measured sentiment about Amy Connie Barrett, who was confirmed by the Senate on Monday to replace the late Ruth Bard Ginsburg in the Supreme Court.

49% of possible voters said they supported her confirmation, while 41% opposed it.

What does the poll sample look like

As Marist strives to ensure that the sample includes difficult-to-reach voters, 19% of the voters surveyed are from the northern/Panhandel region of the state, 19% are from Orlando and the Central Coast, and 16% are from Tampa The area (Tampa) accounts for 19% of the central region of the state, and the Miami and Florida Keys areas account for 27%.

33% of voters identify themselves as Republicans, 29% are Democrats, and 36% are independents.

Among all possible voters, 42% have a college degree, and whites with a college degree make up 27% of the sample of potential voters.

All these demographics are consistent with the NBC News/Marist survey since September.

NBC News/Florida’s Marist survey revealed 743 voters Interviews were conducted via mobile phones and landlines from October 25th to 27th. Its margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The poll also interviewed 1,001 registered voters (plus or minus 3.9 percentage points) and 1,125 adults (plus or minus 3.6 percentage points).




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