A senior adviser to a US think tank stated that Washington and Tehran will eventually be able to reach a nuclear agreement because Iran needs to be free from economic sanctions.
Richard Goldberg of the Democratic Defense Foundation said: “I think it’s possible to finally make a deal because Iranians need money.”
Both the United States and Iran seemed interested in returning to the negotiating table, but failed to reach a consensus on who should act first. The Biden administration expressed its willingness to start a dialogue with Tehran last week, but Iran has repeatedly stressed that the United States must lift sanctions to initiate this process. So far, Washington has rejected these calls.
In addition, the new agreement between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is “definitely not helpful”, and Goldberg said this is less than previously allowed.
The Iranian parliament passed a law to prevent inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, but both sides said on Sunday that “necessary verification and monitoring activities”
Tan Fengqin of the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore said Iran is aware of the possible disadvantages of preventing inspections.
He told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” that the three-month probation “provides some space and time for the United States and Iran to try to solve the serial problem.”
Goldberg is also optimistic about reaching an agreement.
He told CNBC reporters: “All the threats you have seen, terrorism, Gulf threats, tanker seizures, nuclear programs, hostage-taking, these are all kinds of blackmail methods to obtain money and obtain sanctions,” Monday’s Squawk Box Asia”. “This means it is possible to reach an agreement.”
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Sanctions damage Iran’s economy
The severe sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration after withdrawing from the 2015 agreement have had disastrous consequences for Tehran’s economy.
According to data from the International Monetary Fund, the last time Iran achieved GDP growth was in 2017, while the Islamic Republic only received US$8.8 billion in foreign exchange reserves last year. This is a decrease from US$12.7 billion in 2019 and US$121.6 billion in 2018.
Goldberg said: “They are suffering from sanctions imposed by President Trump, the so-called maximum pressure campaign.”
He added: “Obviously, they need funds, they need sanctions. They want to trigger a crisis and try to force Biden’s hands into some form of negotiation, which includes sanctions.”
However, there are still questions about the prospects of this transaction.
Iran stated that its violation of the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan is reversible and can be withdrawn. But Goldberg disagreed.
He said: “There are many steps that are irreversible.” “They have acquired the technical knowledge to test advanced centrifuges. This is something we can’t put back in the bottle.”
He also pointed out that the agreement came with a deadline to restrict Iran’s nuclear program.
“since [the JCPOA is] It has been five years since now, and in any case, we have not reached an agreement to benefit Iran. Therefore, this is a major question mark as to whether the Biden administration and its European and Asian allies want to re-reach an agreement or simply insist and negotiate a new agreement,” he said.