Just two months ago, Donald Trump warned against providing “rescue” to Democrat-controlled states that are suffering from the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.
The President of the United States said at the time: “This is unfair to Republicans, because all the states that need help are under the control of the Democratic Party.”
Two months later, the new corona virus outbreak map in the United States looks completely different. As the President suggested, the rapidly reopening country is now seeing a surge in cases and rising hospitalization rates, which is affecting the heart of the Republican Party. According to the Associated Press, countries that Trump won in 2016 accounted for about 75% of new cases.
Some of these are key swings, and Trump will almost certainly need to win again to get a second term. As pandemic disasters spread across the country, other states that have long been considered reliable Republicans also increasingly need to fight.
Recent polls show that Trump is following presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in battlefield states such as Florida and Arizona. A series of Fox News polls conducted late last month also found that Trump and Biden were actually tied in Texas and Georgia, which have long been considered strongholds of the Republican Party. In the past two weeks, all four states have reported new cases of coronavirus.
Trump has regarded his disappointing poll numbers as “false”, but his re-election campaign is clearly aware of the increasingly unpopular situation of the president because he avoids facing the latest wave of new cases. The Trump campaign launched the first television commercials in Georgia in late last month and held several voter registration events in Texas on the holiday weekend on July 4.
“Popular does clarify and highlight the failure of the Republican leadership and the need for many different policy reforms that the Democratic Party has struggled with for years,” said Royce Brooks, executive director of Anne List. Women in the state added: “Texas will definitely be in demand.”
Most election experts said that Trump still has an advantage in Texas, and he won 9 points in 2016, but his declining reputation could help Democrats in the polls ensure a historic victory in the state. Royce said: “We may not see Texas win a statewide victory for the Democratic Senate candidate or the presidential race, but we are definitely expected to turn the state parliament into Democratic control in November.”
The situation is even worse for Republican voters in traditional swing states like Florida, where Trump has been losing to Biden. A poll conducted by Fox News late last month showed that Biden led Florida by 9 points, which was higher than the three-point advantage in April.
Alex Patton, a Republican strategist in Gainesville, Florida, said: “We can tell from the polls, and we can tell anecdotally that the independent has been shut down, so this One issue has increasingly attracted people’s attention.” “By secret ballot, people have suffered a lot.”
As Democrats strive to regain control of the Senate, these obstacles may have a profound impact on the US Senate. Texas, Georgia and Arizona will all hold Senate elections this fall, and Trump’s controversial comments on the coronavirus pandemic have left Republican senators in a difficult position in preparation for the November election.
Republican Senator Martha McSally is already in trouble in Arizona, and Democratic candidate Mark Kelly has been polling in Arizona. McSally refused to keep his distance from Trump, even if there is evidence that his number is sinking in the state. A poll conducted in Arizona last month showed Biden leading seven percentage points, although Democrats have won the state only once since 1952.
However, the 2018 midterm elections showed that Arizona is becoming more difficult for Republicans, as suburban and Latino voters increasingly flow to Democrats. McSally, who was appointed as the current speaker of the Senate, lost to Democratic MP Kyrsten Sinema in the 2018 Senate election with a slight advantage. Now, just as the number of coronavirus infections seen in Arizona is rising, Democrats believe that the residents of the state are ready to be replaced at the presidential level.
Democratic strategist DJ Quinlan said: “Arizona has been in a long-term trend, especially in the past decade, away from the Republican Party.” “But I think Covid and many other things will only make things happen faster.”
Chip Scutari, a political consultant based in Phoenix, Arizona, pointed out that the current president will face challenges in winning a second term in the face of a severe financial crisis caused by a global pandemic. “[Voters] Scutari said: “They won’t pay attention to many policy struggles, but when someone in the family is sick or their father is unemployed, they will pay attention.” “In my opinion, this has exceeded party politics.” He added : “I think the country on the battlefield must change to the blue wave.”
Although Trump complained about “false polls”, Trump seemed a little aware of his pre-endangered position. The president has begun to claim that the election will be “manipulated” by voter fraud, because people are trying to expand the chance of mailing votes, even though voter fraud is actually rare. Trump’s unfounded claims are interpreted as attempts to legitimize elections in the event of election failure.
“Republicans know they are in trouble. They even knew it before the pandemic.” Brooks of Anne’s List said. “That’s why they insist on participating in the voter suppression strategy here.”
At the end of last month, the Supreme Court rejected the request of the Texas Democrats to expand the postal vote for all voters in the state and established strict rules for postal ballots. But Brooks said she believes Texans will still vote in November.
Brooks said: “This is certainly not the first time in our history that someone is forced to choose between security and voting rights.” “And again and again, we see people choose to vote.”