It concerns many people that the cycle of tit-for-tat border conflicts usually spread by international diplomacy may continue and trigger a longer and more intense war.
Control the Nagorno-Karabakh mountains. It is inhabited and controlled by Armenians, with the assistance of Armenian diasporas, it is located in the territory of Azerbaijan and is connected to Armenia by an expensive road. It is a heavily militarized country, its forces are supported by Armenia, and the country has established a security alliance with Russia. Azerbaijan has long declared that it will retake the territory, and this is an internationally recognized Azerbaijani. The control of this area has become the pride of the nationalism (almost survivalism) of the two countries.
Is it possible to escalate into a total war?
The normal rhythm of this conflict will allow diplomacy to rush in and stabilize the guns after 48 hours of bleeding. But this has not happened yet, on the contrary it soon became a reality. Armenia declared martial law on Sunday and mobilized all its troops. Azerbaijan immediately imposed martial law on Sunday and partly mobilized on Monday.
Baku has long stated that it will retake the area and has abundant oil resources to use for the same purpose. The conflict is so neglected and little known to the outside world that some people speculate that the battle might get out of control. Washington is too distracted and introverted, hoping to summon all its diplomatic forces to stop it. There is a deputy secretary of state in the United States who called on both sides to “urging the two sides to cease hostilities immediately.” President Donald Trump said “we will see if we can stop it.”
Why did Russia and Turkey solve this problem?
Third, Turkey and Russia found themselves on opposite sides of the fever front. Like in Syria and Libya, their agents (mercenaries or allies) are vying for control of the Middle East or the Caucasus, where the United States has a small footprint and cannot balance the delicate distribution of power. Turkey has been particularly enthusiastic in encouraging Azerbaijan. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Twitter that Armenia “reaffirmed once again that this is the greatest threat to peace and tranquility in the region. The Turkish nation continues to support its Azerbaijani brothers and sisters, as always.”
The Kremlin has always been a calmer force. President Vladimir Putin called on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to point out that “all necessary measures must now be taken to prevent the escalation of military confrontation. The most important thing is-stop military operations.” However, Moscow is a long-term supporter of Armenia in terms of weapons and diplomacy, and it is unlikely to tolerate Turkey’s imposing its will in its former Soviet power areas. Putin also maintains a good relationship with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (Ilham Aliyev).
However, given the continuing violence in Syria, hatred is intensifying, and Syrian fighters supported by Turkey are fighting against the Syrian regime, an ally in Moscow. In Libya, similar tensions are increasing. Turkey is using Syrian mercenaries to support the government in Tripoli. According to US officials, Russia has sent Wagner mercenaries to help control hostile forces in the East. Both Moscow and Ankara seem to be watching Washington’s indifference to becoming a regional superpower, and Nagorny-Karabakh is the latest, longest, and least controversial place in this conflict.
What is the rest of the world talking about?
Everyone wants to be calm, but no one on the frontline Iines is listening. NATO stated that “the two sides should immediately cease hostilities” and added that “there is no military solution to resolve this conflict.” The EU requires “an immediate cessation of hostilities, demotion and strict compliance with the ceasefire”, which is the OSCE Minsk Group Coordinated.
However, Trump’s four years of disengagement, the pandemic, increased confidence in Russia, and Turkey’s bold regional stance have created a new impetus to discard old norms and seek destructive opportunities. Even if diplomacy abruptly suspends the fighting in the next few hours, the renewed rhetoric on both sides means that this will soon break out again.