Seoul, South Korea-Last year was a disaster for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
During the pandemic’s border closures, he watched helplessly as his country’s already severely frustrated economic recession, while the failure of the television summit in cooperation with former President Donald Trump was worrying. Can lift the cruel sanctions on his country.
Now he must start again with President Joe Biden, who previously called Kim a “thug” and accused Trump of chasing glasses instead of meaningfully reducing Kim̵
In his recent political speech, Kim Jong Il vowed to strengthen his nuclear weapons program, but he also tried to give Biden a chance to say that the fate of the relationship between the two countries depends on whether Washington abandons his so-called hostile US policy.
It is not clear how patient Kim will be. North Korea has used missile launches and other provocative means to force the United States to return to the negotiating table to test the history of the new US administration.
During the recent military parade in Pyongyang, Kim Jong Il demonstrated new weapons he might test, including a solid-fuel ballistic system designed to be launched from vehicles and submarines, and North Korea’s largest intercontinental ballistic missile.
The resurgence of tensions will force the United States and South Korea to think more deeply about the possibility that Kim Jong Il may never voluntarily give up the weapon he believes is the strongest guarantee of his survival.
King’s armory became a major threat to the United States and its Asian allies after the tests conducted in 2017, including the detonation of a purported thermonuclear warhead and flight tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles, which proved the potential to penetrate the United States. .
A year later, Kim Jong Un began diplomacy with South Korea and the United States, but in 2019, when the Americans rejected North Korea’s request for substantial sanctions in exchange for a sporadic deal of partly abandoning its nuclear capabilities, Kim Jong-un went on track.
North Korea is unlikely to become Biden’s top priority. Although Biden is facing more and more domestic problems, he is also stepping up efforts to reach a 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran. Trump blew up Trump to support What he called the greatest pressure on Iran.
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University, said that the Biden administration’s “policy focus sequence may be: let the United States own its own houses, strengthen the US alliance, and adjust its strategy against China and Russia. And then speak to Iran and North Korea.” In Seoul.
But North Korea never likes to be ignored.
Although Biden served as the vice president of Barack Obama, and Barack Obama’s policy was to wait for North Korea while gradually increasing sanctions, this approach may not work because since then, North Korea’s weapons capabilities have been greatly improved.
Easley said that sanctions, border closures and natural disasters that killed crops have posed the most severe challenges to Kim Jong Il’s nine-year rule, but he will not rush to make concessions. Kim Jong Il’s government has a high tolerance for family suffering and can expect China as its only major ally to provide extensive help.
North Korea’s first provocation under the Biden administration may have something to do with the submarine-launched ballistic system demonstrated by the tuna in the recent parade.
At the congress of the ruling party, Kim Jong Il expressed his ambitions for long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles and reconnaissance satellites, which may lead to space launches, which will become a test of long-range missile technology. This is reminiscent of the early weeks of Obama’s term in 2009.
Esley said: “(The North) has the ability to conduct tests that the United States and its allies cannot ignore.” “King may use this.”
Shin Beomchul, an analyst at the Seoul-based National Research Institute of Korea, said North Korean leaders are trying to move diplomacy toward arms reduction negotiations between nuclear powers, rather than eventually leading to complete handover. Negotiations on weapons. strategy.
Xin said that it was not possible for North Korea to test weapons until Biden delivered a speech at the State of the Union address in February, where he could set the tone for North Korea’s policy. Kim Jong Il may also want to see if the United States and South Korea will conduct large-scale joint military exercises in March.
Although the allies described its annual exercises as defensive and reduced most of the joint training activities under Trump’s leadership to make room for diplomacy, North Korea called for a complete cessation of the exercises, describing them as an invasion exercise and the United States. Proof of hostility. .
“During the party congress, North Korea has made it clear that it has no intention to make concessions first, but it is also interested in listening to the United States,” said Shin, a South Korean diplomat during Obama’s tenure.
He said: “Biden will not inherit Trump’s top-down diplomacy, but you can expect him to be more flexible in working-level negotiations and willing to engage in dialogue with North Koreans anytime, anywhere.”
Shin expects that Biden will eventually reach an agreement with North Korea, similar to Trump’s agreement with Iran in 2018. It can provide a certain degree of compensation to North Korea to freeze its nuclear and missile capabilities at current levels.
He said that although the United States is unlikely to abandon its long-term commitment to the denuclearization of North Korea, reducing North Korea’s nuclear capability to zero is not a realistic near-term diplomatic goal.
Park Won-gon, a professor at Handong University in South Korea, said that an Iran-style agreement may cooperate with North Korea, which has more advanced weapons and is unlikely to accept the surveillance steps included in the Iran agreement.
Park Geun-hye said that one thing is clear: If North Korea tests its weapons, Biden will increase sanctions and continue to push Kim Jong Il’s economy to the edge.