The study found that densely populated communities reached the peak of infection earlier, while nearby communities did not reach the peak of infection until weeks or even years later.
Seattle-A new study published by researchers from the University of Washington and the University of California Irvine investigates how COVID-19 spreads in different communities and found that the virus is unevenly distributed throughout the community.
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in September, analyzed network exposure and demographic factors to simulate the location and speed of the spread of COVID-1
The study also looked at 18 other major cities.
Researchers used demographic data from the U.S. Census Bureau, simulation technology, and data on COVID-19 cases since last spring to estimate the number of days the virus has spread in a given city.
According to a research report from the University of Western Australia, researchers found that the rush hour in some neighborhoods was earlier than others, and in every city, the virus lasted much longer than some people expected.
“The most basic gain of this study is risk. The co-authors of the study said that people are facing longer risks than they thought. The life of this virus will be longer than expected. Means it hasn’t happened yet. Zack Almquist, assistant professor of sociology at the University of Wisconsin.
In Seattle, researchers found that the overall scope of the virus is wide, with some communities reaching a peak in 83 days, while others require more than 1,000 days. The figure below shows the areas with the highest infection rate in red. The green area is approximately 730 days, and the blue area exceeds 1,000 days. These estimates assume that no major measures have been taken to prevent the spread of viruses (such as vaccines).
The study found that in densely populated Seattle neighborhoods like Capitol Hill or the University District, the infection rate peaked, while nearby communities such as Monte Lake did not reach the peak of infection until weeks or even years later.
The researchers say that these more detailed models used for research predict the “sudden” behavior of coronavirus transmission than the standard model. These models usually use advanced methods for geographic areas such as counties or states, and predict based on the general idea that the virus will take root and spread at an equal rate until the peak of infection is reached.
Almquist said: “If we predict these models in terms of nationwide implications, we might expect to see certain areas (such as rural populations) not seeing infections for months or even years before the peak of infections.” “These predictions and Other predictions are beginning to show that it may take several years for the spread of COVID-19 to reach saturation of the population. Even if it does, it is likely to become endemic without a vaccine.